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Sonoma County Real Estate Market Insights – December 2025

It's been a wild year for real estate with many factors influencing the shift from a seller's market to largely a buyer's market locally.   We'll have a full wrap up for the year in January, but here is a teaser with some key trends...

 

Sonoma and Napa County home listings by days on market, with chart counts, market notes, and Compass branding.

This year's real estate market, locally and beyond, as been a tale of two markets. Those that sell quickly (meeting new market conditions) and those that sit for some time. Above you can see the distinct double hump that shows how this has played out as we near the end of 2025.

 

Sonoma County months of inventory chart from 2018 to 2025, annotated with market shifts and a Compass wordmark.

In the fourth quarter, many homes come off the market - waiting to reset and relaunch in the following calendar year. You can see a small dip as the absorption rate decreased slightly. Nonetheless, the OVERALL supply remains up leaving market conditions in the buyer's camp.

 

Chart of Sonoma County home sales from 2005 to June 2025, with major real estate market periods annotated.

Total sales counts have ticked up since the low in 2023 and current forecast suggest modest increases in total sales for 2026. Looking back it was quite the roller coaster.

 

Sonoma County population by age segment, 2020–2024, with the largest increase among residents 65 and older.

The demographics of our county have evolved in the last few years. Overall, Sonoma County's population decreased by 1%. The largest decrees was in school age children (ages 5 to 17) which dropped by 8% and the largest jump was in seniors with a 12% increase. An aging population aligns with national figures as well.

 

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