Open three tabs on the same evening and price a home in Windsor, California three different ways. Zillow puts the typical home value, as of its June 2026 update, at $786,384, down 2.1 percent over the past year. Redfin's most recent monthly read puts the average sold price at $838,000, up 3 percent year over year, and its March 2026 figures show a median sold price of $872,000, up 6.8 percent from the year before. Movoto's July 2026 figures show a median list price of $769,000, down slightly from the prior month and down 1 percent from July of last year.
Three sites. Three directions. One town.
If you have started looking at Windsor this summer, you have probably already run into this. It feels like a data error somewhere. It is not. It is what happens when the actual inventory of a town starts to shift while different websites keep measuring different slices of it, and Windsor has more of that shifting happening right now than it has in years.
Three sites, three different questions
The numbers do not disagree because someone got it wrong. They disagree because they are answering different questions.
Redfin's figures describe homes that already closed. Someone made an offer, cleared appraisal, and funded the loan. That data also comes from a genuinely small pool. Redfin's own March 2026 report counted only 16 closed sales in Windsor for the month. In a sample that thin, one or two large sales in a place like Lakewood Hills can pull the median up without a single existing home actually appreciating. That is also why the reported days on market for sold homes sits at 23 days, down sharply from 44 days a year earlier: fewer transactions, and the ones that happened moved fast.
Movoto's number is asking price, not sold price, which is why its days-on-market figure for July 2026 runs to 68 days, roughly three times Redfin's closed-sale number. It is measuring how long a listing sits before anything happens, not how long it takes once a buyer is actually serious.
Zillow's Home Value Index is trying to answer a narrower and arguably more honest question: is the typical home worth more or less than it was, independent of which specific homes happened to trade this month. That mix-adjustment is exactly why it can show a 2.1 percent decline in the same month Redfin shows sold prices climbing. The two numbers are not contradicting each other. They are describing two different layers of the same market.
What is actually reshaping the mix
The reason this matters more in Windsor than in a town with a stable, slow-turning housing stock is that Windsor's inventory is genuinely being rebuilt right now, and the story behind it is specific enough to trace.
The most significant piece is a proposal called the Village on the Town Green, an 18.24-acre project at 9290 Old Redwood Highway, on the site of the former Windsorland mobile home park where an earlier 387-unit project called Vintage Oaks collapsed into foreclosure and abandonment before this current plan replaced it. As reported by the Press Democrat in January 2026, the current version, filed by Stephen Reilly of 330 Land Company with two development arms of the Gallaher Companies, calls for 98 single family homes and 48 junior accessory dwelling units built by 330 Land Company, plus 97 deed-restricted affordable apartments across four three-story buildings and a separate 113-unit senior living community, both to be built and owned by Gallaher. The full site sits inside Windsor's Downtown Specific Plan and Station Area Plan, about a half mile from the SMART train station that opened in June 2025, and the town's own public hearing notices still listed the project, now sized at 308 total units, among its pending entitlement applications as of this summer, with no hearing date yet attached.
It is not an isolated proposal. Gallaher's involvement here is its fourth project in Windsor and the surrounding area in roughly 18 months, following the Shiloh Apartments, a 62-unit mixed-use development with commercial space currently under construction, and Cora Creek, a 106-unit affordable housing project at Conde Lane and Armando Renzullo Way that cleared approval in April 2025. Separately, the town's hearing notice list also shows a preliminary application for Mill Creek, 260 for-sale condominiums proposed for a 20.3-acre site on Bell Road.
None of that new supply has closed escrow yet, so it will not show up in Redfin's sold-price data or Zillow's index for some time. But it changes what a buyer is actually choosing between the moment it starts leasing up or listing, and it is a meaningful part of why the resale market feels tighter on the low end while the town-wide average keeps climbing on a thin number of higher-priced closings.
The neighborhood carries more signal than the town average
This is the part worth sitting with if you are actually comparing Windsor to another Sonoma County town: the town-wide number was never going to tell you much about a specific street.
Vintage Greens, developed in the early 2000s with tree-lined streets and community parks, and Lakewood Hills, a gated community established in the 1980s with private lakes, tennis courts, a pool, and walking trails within reach of the Windsor Golf Club and John Ash & Co., are two of the more established neighborhoods buyers ask about most. Local market commentary earlier this year described both as places where 2026 buyers have picked up a little more room to negotiate, with well-priced homes typically moving in 30 to 45 days rather than the frenzy of prior years.
That is a meaningfully different pace and price posture than what is forming around the Old Redwood Highway corridor, where new construction, attached product, and a mix of income-restricted and market-rate units are all entering the pipeline within walking distance of the Town Green and the train station. A buyer comparing a resale home in Vintage Greens against a future unit near the Village on the Town Green is not comparing two prices in the same market. They are comparing two different products in two different stages of a housing cycle that happen to share a zip code.
Windsor's town-wide median is an average of averages. It cannot tell you what a specific house on a specific street is actually worth, and this year it is being pulled in different directions by a small number of high-end closings on one side and a wave of unbuilt or newly delivered supply on the other.
Which number should actually guide your decision
If you are pricing a purchase or a sale in Windsor this year, the town-wide figure from any single site is the least useful number available to you. What matters more:
- Whether the specific neighborhood you are targeting is trading on 16 closings a quarter or 60, since thin samples swing hard
- Whether the comparable homes you are looking at are asking prices or closed prices, since those two numbers can move in opposite directions in the same month
- Whether new supply is entering that specific corridor, since a project like the Village on the Town Green will eventually shift what "typical" means for homes within walking distance of downtown, even if it takes a year or two to show up in the data
A few questions worth asking before you trust any number
Is Windsor currently a buyer's market or a seller's market? The honest answer is that it depends which segment you are in. Established neighborhoods like Vintage Greens and Lakewood Hills are reportedly giving buyers a bit more negotiating room in 2026, while the small number of homes actually closing at the higher end are still moving fast and pushing Redfin's sold-price average up.
Will the new downtown development affect prices in older neighborhoods? Not immediately. None of the proposed projects near the Town Green have delivered units yet, and the Village on the Town Green is still working through its entitlement process as of this summer. New supply tends to show up first in rental rates and attached-home pricing near the project itself before it reaches detached homes in established neighborhoods further out.
How long before this pipeline changes the town-wide numbers? Multi-year, not multi-month. Between planning commission review, construction, and lease-up or sale, a project of this scale typically takes several years from application to occupied units, which is part of why today's aggregate numbers still reflect an older, thinner resale market rather than the supply that is coming.
If you are trying to make sense of what a specific Windsor address is actually worth, or you want a read on a neighborhood before you commit to a search radius, that is a conversation worth having with someone who tracks this market street by street rather than headline by headline. The team at Borrall Homes works Windsor alongside Santa Rosa, Healdsburg, Sebastopol, and the rest of Sonoma County every day, and can walk you through what the local pipeline actually means for your timeline. Book an appointment when you are ready to talk specifics instead of averages.
